I have to admit, it’s been pretty refreshing to be in the valley and see snow flurries on and of throughout the day today, even if it hasn’t amounted to much in the way of accumulations. The cold front that came through last night was weak and poorly defined but ample cold air and winds for mixing scoured out the last of the pollution and have us all breathing easy today.
As far as snow totals – well, the weak wave that progressed into the region is exactly that. Resorts are reporting 1″ new if any at all, with just 0.01″ of water at Alta-Collins snow stake. Our friends to the north in the Cache valley seem to have done a little better, with ~3″ of snow reported in the Logan area, so if you’re really jonesing for a Sunday tour on some fresh… Overall, I wouldn’t expect much in the way of additional snow in the mountains tonight, just a trace to 1″.
So what’s next? There’s hope, right?
At this range I’d rather keep looking at ensembles than go one deterministic run to another. Both the GEFS and ECMWF EPS indicate, as Trey previously mentioned, a trough moving into the region midweek. The agreement among members and models here is fairly good, though they are agreeing on a slightly weaker outcome than we might hope for. Both models bring in ~0.2-0.3 SWE, though the ever terrain-happy deterministic GFS suggests closer to 0.8″ in the Wasatch.
Far too early to put value on any numbers right now, I’ll say this – we can expect something with a little more punch than today’s trough, but not much more than a modest snowfall mid-week.
At this point I’ll take any snow we can get, but man, I’m still crossing my fingers for the big one and wondering when we’ll see it.