Utah Ski Weather

It’s been a pretty solid snow season wouldn’t you say? It seems like we’ve had the good fortune of forecasting storm after storm this year. And it looks like for these least these last two posts, we’ll have the opportunity to do the same!

Today saw mostly cloudy skies over most Utah ski locations with a little bit of snow falling in the morning and early afternoon hours as a weak shortwave moved into and has lingered over our area. Snowbird and Alta have reported 2″ over the last 24 hours, with little to no accumulations reported elsewhere.

A shortwave that has been moving across the Gulf of Alaska will push into the Pacific Northwest on Monday, and into the Intermountain West by Tuesday morning. This should bring another round of fairly significant mountain snow into our Utah ski locations. Through Wednesday, expect 10-14″ in the Cottonwoods, and 7-11″ for Snowbasin. Below is a map of the ECMWF 72 hour total snowfall forecast.

As I said before, this has been a pretty nice year overall for snow. That is proven by looking at SNOTEL data below showing that many mountain locations are well over 100% of normal in terms of snow water equivalent. That’s pretty impressive!

I hope you all got to enjoy the snow out there this year; I know I have. It’s been fun forecasting for y’all this season; I hope our forecasts have been helpful to most of you out there. Take care and be safe as we transition to summer sports season!

-Pete

… it’s biking and golfing season, right? No point in skiing, no good snow to be found, stay in the valley, it’s April!

Wait, it’s April. In Utah. April has a history of delivering big snow here! Did you know SLC has even seen measurable accumulations in June?

The long and short of it: A deep, powerful, and progressive trough is progressing through today through Thursday with another shortwave poised to roll through behind it before weak ridging starts to return by the weekend. Ample synoptic-scale dynamics accompany this system, hence the significant valley rainfall we’ve been seeing today and the very steady and widespread nature of the precipitation. In addition, this trough is COLD! Like -10°C at 700 mb cold! Once the mid-level cold front pushes through this evening expect snow levels to finally drop to the valley floor. Moist northwest flow at mid-levels will boost the totals in the usual favored areas, though the low setting up to the east of the region will complicate things a little bit with the low-level flow. A lot to consider today, what an event! Rapid intensification continues as the system moves off to our east, sure to give the plains a spring storm to remember.

The icing on the cake? Ok, this time it’s actually warranted to say this: Lake Effect (Lake enhancement, really)! With the shallow lake primed and warm from the past week, and a still-moist cold airmass moving in over top, the environment will be ripe with instability and the lower levels will be near saturated. Narrow zones of the Salt Lake and Tooele valleys could see some snowfall totals that exceed the regional forecast if this happens to be the case. The impact on the Cottonwoods, however, will be marginal at best.

Not much change from Taylor’s numbers here, sticking with 18-24″ in the Upper Cottonwoods. For those of you still touring from lower elevations on the Park City side, expect 6-8″ of snow down low, increasing with elevation to 18-22″ along the Wasatch Crest.

With all the rain-on-snow and new snow on sun-crusted slopes please be avy-aware! Check the UAC forecast, and remember: if you don’t know, don’t go!

-Mike

This weekend, resorts started closing up shop for the season, despite having an excellent April snowpack from base to summit (Looking at you, Park City, Pow Mow, and Deer Valley).  For the resorts that are still open for a bit longer, another storm is on the way and will bring a healthy snowfall that will secure at least one more powder day.

Tomorrow, southwesterly flow will bring cloud cover and moderate temperatures prior to the arrival of our next Pacific storm system.  The trough will move eastward into the area tomorrow afternoon/evening with precipitation chances increasing as the day progresses.  Forecasted 500 mb heights and vorticity is shown below. Plot is valid at 6 pm Tuesday with the trough axis is centered over Nevada.

Precipitation will start as a rain-snow mix mid-day on Tuesday. The cold front is expected to move through Northern Utah Tuesday evening, with below-freezing temperatures forecasted all the way to the valley floor. This very moist airmass following the front will allow for snow to continue through the night at all elevations.
The cross section below shows the saturated air/high relative humidity values following the front.

The post-frontal northwest flow and ample moisture will allow for mountain snow to continue through Thursday. Given what the models are showing now, here’s what I would say for snow totals through Thursday:

Cottonwood Canyons: 18-24″
Northern Utah: 16-20″

For your viewing pleasure, check out the forecast of simulated radar reflectivity (NAM 3km) through the end of the week. Plot via www.tropicaltidbits.com

If you are still able to ski, enjoy the late season pow!

A weak upper level trough entered our region last night and provided some ski locations with a few inches of snow, mainly in the upper Cottonwoods where Alta and Snowbird got ~3″. Snowbasin reported 1″ of snow. Today has been quite cloudy with some snow showers in some mountain locations as that same upper level trough exits the area. Don’t expect any more accumulating snow this afternoon and evening, though.

Ridging will move in throughout the evening and into tomorrow and the early upcoming next week. Sunday should be beautiful with mostly sunny skies in all northern Utah ski locations. HOWEVER, a potent Pacific storm looks like it will move into our region by Tuesday afternoon/evening, with mountain showers possibly lingering into early Friday morning. This system looks to be quite a bit colder than the weak one we’ve been under last night through today. Even the valleys could see some snow as 700 mb temperatures could dip quite a bit as a cold front moves through Tuesday evening (see chart below). Ideally, to receive snow in the Salt Lake Valley you would need temperatures at least -7 deg C or colder. However, with heavier precipitation, the snow elevation levels often drop pretty low and valley snow can occur at “warmer” temperature thresholds. This looks like it could be the case for the Salt Lake Valley if the models hold up, with an outside chance of a fairly similar storm to the one we got last Thursday/Friday where heavy, wet snow brought down many tree branches and caused power outages in parts of the SLC metro area.

In the mountains, there is not much uncertainty about precipitation type for this next storm as it should be all snow, basically throughout. There might be some ski locations that receive rain or a mix Tuesday afternoon for a brief time, but there should be a quick transition as the cold front approaches and passes through. Although it’s too early to say how much snow we will get, it does look like it could be a pretty exciting storm with heavy snowfall rates and plenty of powder to ski in come Wednesday and Thursday.

We’ll have more updates regarding the upcoming storm for you lingering spring season powder hounds. In the meantime, have a safe and happy weekend!

-Pete

If you didn’t make it up to the mountains today to ski (or board)…well, that’s just a shame. It was pretty DEEP out there. A late season winter storm (which is very common here in Utah) paid us a visit yesterday and today, and dumped a good amount of snow on most Utah ski locations. It also provided a surprising amount of snow in some valley locations as well. I’m sure most of you know about all the downed tree branches and limbs and some of the power outages that made this morning’s commute a nightmare for some.

In the mountains, it wasn’t the fluffy powder that we tend to get in mid-winter, but those cream cheese turns still felt pretty good today! Here are the 48 hour reported snow totals for area ski locations (From north to south):

• Beaver Mountain: 2″
• Powder Mountain: 12″
• Snowbasin: 16″
• Park City: 5″
• Deer Valley: 2″
• Solitude: 12″
• Brighton: 12″
• Alta: 13″
• Snowbird: 12″
• Sundance: 6″
• Brian Head: 9″
  

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As that system continues to exit the area, we’ll still see some afternoon snow showers in the Utah mountains (especially in the Cottonwoods) during the afternoon on Saturday. Some of the showers could be pretty intense with some even containing some lightning/thunder. Expect very little in the way of accumulation, though. By Sunday afternoon, ridging will slowly begin settling in (see 500 hPa vorticity chart below) and beautiful, sunny blue bird conditions should be present during the day. Temperatures should be very comfortable through the weekend (low to mid 30s) with little wind.

The next chance for appreciable mountain snow looks like it could come next week on Tuesday evening as a trough moves into the Intermountain West from the Pacific. We’ll definitely keep an eye on that. In the meantime, enjoy the leftover powder this weekend from our recent storm!

-Pete

We will return to a couple of days of cooler and wetter weather to end the week and start the weekend.

A weak band of precipitation moved through the area this morning, but any accumulations were extremely light. As the day has progressed the higher cloud decks have headed toward the east and we have been left with some fluffy cumulus clouds from daytime heating.

We are expecting rain and snow to move into the area later this evening around sundown. This area of precipitation is currently coming together over eastern Nevada – visible by the bank of clouds in the above animation. We could see some thunder and lightning as the main portion of this band moves through as well. A moist lower atmosphere with some clearing and a bit of northwest flow should keep some instability snow showers going throughout the day on Friday.

Snow amounts through Friday should be a nice revival to the spring snowpack. The upper Cottonwoods can expect about 6-12″ with locally higher amounts possible. Park City areas should fare decently as well, especially at higher elevations, with 4-8″ expected. Snowbasin and Sundance aren’t likely to see as much accumulation with about 3-6″ and 2-4″ expected, respectively. Winter Weather Advisories from the National Weather Service were just issued for the mountains, Wasatch Back, and SW Wyoming from this evening through mid-morning Friday. Valley locations should remain rain, except for a short period when snow could mix in and lead to light accumulations (especially on benches) Friday morning.

Expect somewhat quieter conditions for the weekend, but some light snow showers remain possible at times (mainly Saturday). A little bit of a rebound in temperatures is possible early next week, but winter doesn’t seem to be over anytime soon for our mountains. Ensembles are suggesting another storm for the middle of next week followed by an unsettled pattern for several days thereafter.

-Lucas

The weekend brought another foot of snow to the high mountains, and some snow all the way down the the benches. Snow rates were especially good early in the morning Sunday when 2″ per hour was falling for a bit at Alta. This was some dense stuff though, as tends to happen later in the season.

After that storm cycle, a high pressure system moved in, and now it’s sunny and quickly warming. Spring is definitely here in the valleys. The temperature has been flirting with 40°F in the upper Cottonwoods, and it’ll push 50°F over the next 2 days. Thankfully temperature doesn’t have much impact on snowmelt rates, at least it’s dwarfed by the impact of the sun. The sun is as strong now as it is in mid-September. The snow pack on the back side of the mountains is ripe, but the higher elevation still have time.

The next storm is Thursday. High clouds will start tomorrow, and their bases will lower going into Thursday. Right now it looks like the cold front will come through in the morning, and most of the precipitation will be with the front. The Cottonwoods are looking at 8-12″ of snow, and snow levels will be around 6000′. I’m somewhat worried about a dust storm coming before the cold front. Strong south winds will start overnight tonight, and the longer they blow the more dust gets in the air. However, we did just have a soaking storm, so hopefully the soil stays put.

Stay tuned for more details.