Active Pattern all week

Posted Monday, February 3rd, 2020 by Andy Park

Class is cancelled… stuck inside sick as a dog and dreaming of surfing Pismo beach (one month baby!)


Image from: https://www.surfline.com/surf-report/pismo-beach-pier/5842041f4e65fad6a77089ac
Not really any swell but grab a SUP and clean up.

Analysis:
Lets start off by checking out the sounding differences between last night and this morning:

Pretty awesome to see the temperature difference between last night and today. Also, we can see the surface front has arrived but the axis of the upper level trough is yet to pass over the Wasatch Front (it’s somewhere over the border of UT and NV). As this axis ejects east we will see some colder temperatures advect over the area and winds aloft will switch to N/NW.

Short Term (Today through Tuesday):
HREF models indicate that the axis will finish moving over central part of Utah later this afternoon with temperatures aloft dropping an additional 4 degrees Celsius. Snow will continue to fall across the region throughout the day and taper off by tomorrow morning. What is really awesome about this system is the amplification as it passes over the Rockies and merges with an area of low pressure over Mexico. Safe to say this system will impact the entirety of the United States over the next few days.

Long Term (Wednesday through the weekend):

As this system ejects east a ridge over the western seaboard will steer some moisture into the region. This feature, combined with a tightened height gradient, will drive continued snowfall over the mountains Wednesday through Friday with the strongest precipitation starting Wednesday and into Thursday.

The NAEFS plumes are also picking up on this signal with additional snowfall starting Friday morning. Pretty interesting outliers.

Another shortwave trough will slide into the region near the end of the weekend bringing additional snowfall to the area. Safe to say we will remain under active conditions for most of the forecast period.


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