Cold, Active Pattern Incoming

Posted Tuesday, January 7th, 2020 by Tom Gowan

Active weather makes a return to the region tomorrow and should stick around for at least the next 7-10 days. During this period, a series of storms will impact the state with each successive storm slightly stronger than the one preceeding it.

Tomorrow will feature on and off snow showers as the first wave makes its way through northern Utah. This system won’t have much moisture to work with, so I’m not expecting more than a few inches in mountains. There will be a brief lull Wednesday night before snow picks up again during the day on Thursday. This wave will last into the day on Friday should bring several more inches to the mountains of northern Utah. Both of these storms will be cold. Snow-levels will be down at the valley floor for the duration of the events and snow ratios will be high in the mountains (15-20:1, as shown below). Therefore, as depicted by the SREF below, I expect total snowfall from now through the day on Friday to range from 7-15 inches across the mountains of northern Utah.

The next, likely stronger system is slated to enter the region Saturday. Right on the heels will be a potentially even stronger storm starting around the Tuesday timeframe. The steadily increasing strength and moisture associated with these storms shows up nicely in the NAEFS as shown by the increasing slope of the total accumulated snowfall plot and the increasing snowfall rates.

The GFS ensemble shows the same general pattern continuing as we head into the end of next week. Hopefully everyone has their ski legs by now. It’s looking like free refills for the next week!

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