The Hits Keep Coming

Posted Saturday, February 24th, 2018 by Peter Veals

After all that beautiful low-density powder we had yesterday, the atmosphere gave us a quick break this morning. As I write this around 3pm though, the storm track is quickly reloading. Clouds are thickening up and snowflakes are starting to fall with our next system moving in. And it won’t be the only storm this week…there are at least 2 more lined up behind it! Here’s the breakdown:

Time-height digram from the 12Z GFS model for the upcoming week. The hits keep coming!

Storm # 1 (Sat pm-Sun am)

Snow showers will pick up overnight, with cold temperatures (single digits at the resorts) and more low-density blower powder. The models don’t show this system producing a ton of liquid (0.2-0.6″ of water), but snow-liquid ratios will be high (potentially 20:1) and there is a period of cold northwest flow that will benefit the Cottonwoods. The high-resolution models are also going for a period of lake-effect snow overnight tonight that may add a couple more inches for them as well. With that in mind, I’ll go with 6-12″ of snow for the Cottonwood resorts, with 4-8″ of snow elsewhere.

Screen Shot 2018-02-24 at 3.55.06 PM
Precip amounts from the 12Z run of the ECMWF model for Storm #1

Storm #2 (Mon am-Wed am) 

This systems looks a bit warmer than those we’ve had lately, but still with snow levels at or near the valley floors. It also looks to meander around us for 48 hours, which is good in that it increases the time for snowfall to stack up, but bad in that this increases the uncertainty we have in where and how much snow will fall. Hopefully Trey will have a first stab at snowfall totals for this one tomorrow.

Storm #3 (Thur-Sun)

The uncertainty in the details really increases looking this far out, but it looks pretty likely that we’ll have a storm in this period. It also looks like it could be a good one.

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