I come bearing gifts

Posted Saturday, December 25th, 2021 by Thomas Dewitt

TL;DR A break today will give way to a healthy storm tonight, another break tomorrow, and more snow after that. Really great large scale pattern for the next week or so!

Right Now Valley temperatures are in the low 40’s, it’s near freezing at base areas, and it’s in the teens on the upper mountain. Winds have been pretty strong on the peaks for the past 24 hours or so, with sustained winds on Mt. Baldy of about 30mph and gusts in the 60s. We’re in a bit of a break right now between several waves, but radar is picking up a few snow showers in the Cottonwoods and to their SE.

Short Term Forecast The dominant pattern this morning, and for more or less the foreseeable future (see extended forecast), is an upper-level trough near the Pacific coast:

From https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh_nb&rh=2021122506&fh=108&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

The long-wave trough isn’t going anywhere soon, and will eject several short-wave features that look to give us a lot of snow over the next few days. We’re on the tail edge of the last one which brought 1-4″ over the last 24 hours, and the next should start tonight around midnight:

Plumes from https://weather.utah.edu/index.php?runcode=2021122509&t=sref&d=PL&r=CLN
for the next few days. Note the current time is 25/18Z, so some has already happened.

By the time this wave tapers off around mid-morning tomorrow, we could see 8-15″ from it. And we don’t have too long to wait before the next one starts producing tomorrow around midnight. This will be potentially a longer lasting wave and might bring an additional 1-2′ by Tuesday.

Long Range Forecast As mentioned above, the large-scale trough is not moving very fast at all and keeps ejecting short-wave troughs that will give us snow. Here it is again on Wednesday morning:

From https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh_nb&rh=2021122506&fh=108&r=na&dpdt=&mc=?

Not much different than this morning, above. This is a really great pattern for us and it doesn’t look to break down for the foreseeable future!

Snow Forecast 8-15″ by tomorrow morning, a break tomorrow during the day, and an additional 1-2′ by late Monday night for a total of 20-40″!

-Thomas DeWitt

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