Midweek Throwdown.

Posted Sunday, January 5th, 2020 by Andy Park

TL;DR
A slight system over the Great Basin will bring around half a foot of snow (being hopeful here) to some areas of the Wasatch Front tonight and tomorrow. An active pattern will return to Utah midweek through the weekend bringing a high potential for fresh, deep turns by the weekend .

Sunday through Tuesday:
Around 5 inches of snowfall for the Wasatch Mountains Sunday night Monday afternoon.

HREF (High Resolution Ensemble Forecast) are indicating that the axis of the aforementioned trough will finish ejecting over the Wasatch mountains by close of business today. The dropping in heights in the upper levels, combined with a northwest flow swinging in some colder temperatures, will drive snowfall in the mountains throughout tonight. It is worth mentioning that the difference in this system compared to New Years is the lack of moisture available. We will see snow but significantly less than what we had last week. SREF plumes depict this outcome as well. As this system slides off to the East a ridge will build into Tuesday as another system amplifies over the Western seaboard (thank you Tropical Tidbits!)

Wednesday to Weekend:
Fresh turns by Friday with active pattern continuing through weekend.
By morning commute time Wednesday the second system will be over the West with both GEFS and the Euro agreeing on the axis location somewhere off the border of CA/Nevada.

Current GEFS/GFS trends in Integrated Water Vapor are limited

but stronger dynamics could help drive snowfall rates. Current NAEFS plumes are on the up and up and grab my attention.

Again, this is pretty far out for snowfall accumulation prediction but we do see high potential for fresh and deep turns by Friday. GEFS and Eruo ensemble models both indicate another system right behind this one deserving the title of a one-two punch storm.

Important notes:

  • This pattern deserves close attention in the next few days as things could change with respect to the weekend.
  • Too far to throw numbers on snowfall.
  • Do your snowdance.

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