The Cottonwood resorts were able to squeeze all of 1 inch out of the very weak disturbance last night and cloudy skies have been the rule today. Matt L was thinking that there might have been more, but alas, it was only enough to produce some wisps as you cruised down the groomers. A shearing, negatively tilted trough will come onshore in California tonight, adding more to their much-needed totals.
The trough really falls apart tomorrow though, and the moisture and lift just aren’t going to come together for Northern Utah. I think an inch or less is a good bet Wednesday. Like Matt L mentioned, Brian Head might be able to get to 6 inches or so as they will have more moisture to play with. The shreds of the trough will hang around Thursday, bringing grey skies and maybe another inch to the Wasatch. Beaver Mountain and the Logan-area mountain will do better Thursday, with 1-4 possible by Friday morning.
Looking forward from Friday, the large scale pattern will begin to shift from what we have seen this week. According to the current GFS, the polar jet over the eastern Pacific will become fairly static as a deep long-wave trough sets up over the Central Pacific. Such a pattern will keep the proverbial firehose pointed right at Oregon and Washington. Enough of this moisture will make it inland that Northern Utah could do pretty well in the moist WNW flow from Sunday to next Tuesday, albeit with high freezing levels. The ECMWF ensemble likes it too, with virtually all the ensemble members on board with the idea of a strong, wet westerly jet hitting the northwest US.
The only question is whether we will end up too far south to get it! This setup lookssimilar to the one that really gave our season a kick in the pants last February, where the Cottonwoods did well, low elevations got rain, and areas from Logan, UT to the Tetons just got hammered.
In short, don’t bank on it yet, but the 5-7 day outlook is hopeful.