Same ole Same ole

It looks like we’ll continue with warm and dry conditions through mid-week, unfortunately (although this is perfect biking weather…gotta find some good with the bad). The models are continuing to depict a strong trough impacting our area late next week, but run to run consistency has been lacking. Significant timing and amplitude differences exist between the GFS, EURO, and ensembles, however, at least all the models are showing some kind of trough by next weekend. As good as things were a couple weeks ago, this latest drought (As Matt mentioned) has now pulled us behind in snowfall totals :(. It’s still VERY early in the season, though, so things can change. In the meantime, enjoy this pleasant weather and shred some groomers!

 

Warm and Dry

Well, the prognosis is still not good for snow in Utah over the next 5 days.  Some flurries are possible Saturday, and thats about it.  The one silver lining to all the warm weather and clouds has been that weak layers in the backcountry are healing.  Other than that, though, I can’t think of much good that is coming from this pattern.  

It doesn’t really feel like it, but we are only slightly behind average for snow in the higher elevations of the Wasatch right now.  Most stations are 75-90% of their normal snowpack water content.  Up by Logan they are above average.  If you want a deep snowpack you can drive to Jackson though. They have been doing fairly well the last couple weeks, with 50% more season snowfall than the Cottonwoods.

In long range model dreamland there is a good, wet trough making its way into Utah on Thursday next week in the deterministic 12Z GFS.  Who knows if it will happen.  We can hope..

Covering up a few of those rocks

We’ve got another storm coming in starting Wednesday morning! Woooo more snow! Now that I got that out of the way, I’ll add that it’s going to be (yet another) warm and weak storm. Oh well, I’ll take it. The steeps at Snowbird were still pretty rocky this weekend, so the dense snow that will fall should be pretty helpful. For those (like USW’s Matt Jeglum) who were lucky enough to be out touring in the backcountry, the coverage was adequate on the less-rocky terrain and the snow skied well, but avalanche conditions remain quite spooky. Be careful out there.

The storm coming our way is a closed off low-pressure system that has been spinning off the coast of California for the past few days. The low is finally getting picked back up into the storm track, but unfortunately it will be filling (weakening) hastily. This means that although we have a decent amount of moisture that has been pumped into the interior West, the amount of rising motion in the atmosphere to generate precipitation will be fairly limited. The window of time we have to generate snow over the mountains varies between the GFS and ECMWF models, but I’m thinking Wednesday morning through Thursday morning is reasonable, although snowfall rates will likely be pretty low and the rain-snow line will be fairly high due to warm temperatures. With that in mind I’m gonna go 4-8″ storm total for the high elevations of the Cottonwoods, Timpanogos area, and the northern Wasatch, with 2-4″ in the Park City area. The rain-snow line may be near the base of Snowbird and Solitude at times, and unfortunately the PC resort bases will likely see some rain.

UPDATE @ 10am Tuesday: I just don’t like our chances for 8″ of snow anywhere in the Wasatch, so I’d count more on 3-6″…this storm has continued to undwerwhelm me in the models

Long Range:The long range is all over the place. This afternoon’s run of the GFS model just magically created a storm this Saturday over Utah. The ensemble members say it should be a weak storm at best. I’m not gonna bite yet, so I’ll say we have a shot at a weak storm this weekend. That’s it…hopefully Jeff will have more for you tomorrow.

The North wins again

It seems to be a reoccurring theme from last season, the Nrn resorts and mountains faired much better with today’s frontal band than areas near and south of Salt Lake City. Overall, it looks like 4-8 inches of snow fell between Pow Mow and the Beaver with only an inch or 2 for all other areas. Snow showers will continue in the Wasatch tonight but highest amnts will remain in the far north. 

 

Looking Ahead: Unfortunately, the trend is not our friend. I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but the models have continued to depict a weaker, less amplified trough for mid-week. So in response to Matt’s question in the previous blog, it doesn’t look like we’ll be getting very wet. The atmospheric river won’t penetrate very far inland; so this along with a weaker trough means marginal snowfall accumulations. Right now I’m thinking ~ 3-6 inches through Thursday. I’ll definitely be happy if we can squeeze 6 inches out of the mid-week storm, all things considered. In the longer range it doesn’t look like anything significant at least through next weekend.

California is gonna get wet. Will we?

Lets get the weekend forecast out of the way so we can talk about the next potential big storm.  

A fairly strong cold front dropping south from Canada will push just about to the Utah-Idaho border by late Saturday.  This will bring mind-numbing temperatures back to Montana and a decent shot of snow to the Bear River Range near Logan and maybe the Northern Wasatch on Sunday.  Right now I would say we are looking at around half an inch of water for the mountains east of Logan decreasing to maybe and maybe half that by the time you get as far south as the Cottonwoods. With relatively moderate temps this will probably translate to 4-8 inches of snow near Beaver Mountain and a measly 2-5 in the Cottonwoods and Park City.  Snowbasin and PowMow will be in the middle. 

On a side note, The Bear River Range is picking up where it left off last year in terms of just getting dumped on. After leaving the Central Wasatch in the dust during the latter half of the ’13/’14 season, the Tony Grove SNOTEL in the Bear Rivers is at 163% of average snowpack for the date.  There is 40% more snow-water on the ground there than at Snowbird.  

Hopefully the Cottonwoods and points south will hopefully be able to make up some ground next week.  The EC and GFS models have been consistent on a closed-low pressure system slowly drifting off the Pacific into California on Monday and Tuesday.  This low wil be associated with a moisture plume coming out of the sub-tropics called an atmospheric river.  With this juicy subtropical air slamming into the Sierra Nevada, California stands to get a good soaking.  Where the models haven’t been consistent is whether this moisture may make it inland and if so, where it would fall.  The current GFS and EC solutions have it wet in the Wasatch Tuesday-Thursday, but looking at the ensembles still shows that things are quite uncertain.  I won’t bother with any specific snow forecasts yet, but the potential is there for a foot-plus if things come together.  Its been a while since we had a good base-building southerly flow storm so I am crossing my fingers we get it.

Matt

Drying Out with a Storm on the Horizon

A warm front brought a rather balmy airmass into the Wasatch today, and despite the (always gorgeous) sight of precipitation falling in the mountains, this storm is not really good for much besides covering rocks and adding some water to the snowpack. The northern Wasatch received a few inches of snow (or graupel) possibly exceeding 20% water content, with the upper Cottonwoods receiving up to an inch so far. Sierra Cement. Like I said though, good for building an early season base. It looks like there has been some riming on the ridgelines too.

So unfortunately, the beatiful snow from the Sat-Mon storm is now a distant memory. Today’s storm will wind down tonight after dropping perhaps another inch or two of cement, and then we dry out and warm up big time in the mountains. A strong ridge will build and slide over the western U.S. beginning tomorrow and likely persisting through the weekend. So your Thanksgiving skiing should be warm and pleasant for those relatives in town that whine about the cold…*cough* *cough* Mom *cough* *cough*.

After that, we may be clipped in the northern Wasatch by a storm on Saturday, but it doesn’t look to be a very substantial event. The model-to-model and ensemble spread begin to increase out in the long range, but it looks like a pacific storm will likely impact us early next week. I really want to discuss the details of the model solutions, but this far out things are likely to change, so I’ll do the responsible thing and hold off on talking about fantasy land. It’s really tough to do though…I’m already jonesin’ for another storm.

The GOOD(s). The Bad. And the..storm cycle revamps next week??

The Good

Hopefully you were able to get out and sample the good(s) yesterday or today!! Several of us here at USW were able to get in a few turns, and for November the stoke level was pretty high! The Wasatch did quite well with most areas receiving a foot + at the higher elevation sites. The Cottonwoods, as anticipated, saw 2-3 feet +, and more importantly nearly 3 inches of SWE for building that base. And can’t forget props to Peter and Jeff for nailing this one a few days out (see below if you don’t believe me).  

Not sure if this should go in the good or the bad, but it looks like more snow for the mountains tomorrow. Unfortunately, this will coincide with warming temperatures and will likely turn the snowpack “upside down” with higher density fresh falling on top of the blower pow from the past 24 hours. All is well, though, and we can’t be greedy. All snow is good snow this early in the season, right?! Overall, upper level forcing will be weak and the precipitation will be primarily driven by warm air advection. I’m expecting 2 – 4 inches of high density cement for higher elevations (above 8000-9000 feet) with areas in the far north likely doing best with amnts. Areas lower in the mountains will see lower amounts and may flirt with some rain.

The Bad

As is many times the case following a great storm cycle, we inevitably have to go through a period of ridging (also my least favorite period to forecast for…). A strong Pacific Coast ridge will build in over our region from the west throughout the week. This means don’t expect any new snow through late week after tomorrow. 

All news is not bad news, though. Early indications are that a strengthening trough off the California coast is expected to move across the Intermountain West early next week. The ECMWF, GFS, and Ensembles all show the trough moving through our area, however, significant differences in timing, magnitude, and placement exist. We’ll hopefully be able to paint a better picture in the coming days as the next big *fingers crossed* storm comes into play.

Quick Update on the Storm

Well, it has been a classic Little Cottonwood storm.  With moist NW flow the dendrites have just kept falling. With 8 more inches of 5% blower overnight, Alta’s storm total is up to 34 inches.  Snowbird has similar amounts. Brighton and Solitude are reporting 2 feet.  Everybody else has gotten less than that.  With Alta beng closed yesterday, the lucky few up there today have it pretty good.  

Showers are finally ending over Little Cottonwood as I write this.  More detail will come this evening, but it looks like there will be one last gasp of this strom cycle tomorrow before the ridge builds in.  Unfortunately the snow will fall with rising temps so while an inch of water is possible, snow amounts should be 5-10 dense inches.  Areas below 7000 feet might even see some rain.

Still Looking Snowy After a Slow Start

As I write this a little after 4 pm Saturday, thw rain is pounding my window in SLC and the cold front just reached the Salt Lake Valley.  Snow totals so far in the Wasatch have been disappointing, with the wettest areas getting only 3-4 inches of snow out of up to 0.75 inches of water.  This poor snow/water ratio is likely due to a combination of wet snow due to high freezing levels and graupel.  I could complain, but its November, and water on the ground is always a good thing, even if its dense.

Looking forward, by 6 pm Saturday snow levels should be at the valley floor.  After the frontal band moves out precipitation will turn more showery in northwest flow.  The Upper Cottonwoods should do well in the northwest flow through late tomorrow morning.  I think the Upper Cottonwoods will wring another 8-16 inches out of the storm by noon tomorrow, with other areas receiving 5-10 inches.  Lake effect is possible overnight as well, and my totals hedge a little toward some lake enhancement. This will bring the storm totals up to 12-20 in the Cottonwoods and 8-14 elsewhere.  After minimal accumulations Sunday afternoon and night, another shortwave will drop in from the northwest during the day Monday. I expect 3-8 from that last gasp, with the Cottonwoods again getting the upper end amounts. 

The long range is currently very depressing.  Big ridge for the foreseeable future.

Big snow coming our way

Storm Cycle.

I am so excited to be able to use that word in our first forecast of the season! And that’s exactly what we’ll be in for starting mid-late day Saturday, lasting through early next week. When we say storm cycle, we’re talking about a prolonged period where the large-scale pattern is primed for snowfall, and smaller features moving through this pattern provide the periods of heaviest snowfall. So the snow will be stacking up in spurts throughout this period.

Now for the details and uncertainty in this storm cycle. There has been great agreement in the computer models that we’ll be under the influence of a large upper-level trough sitting to our east throughout the period, putting us under a moist northwesterly flow. This type of pattern typically bodes pretty well for lots of snow in the Wasatch, especially the high terrain of Big and Little Cottonwood Canyons. The precipitation output by the computer models has agreed pretty well with this assessment over the past few days. However, as I mentioned above, the periods of heavy snowfall within the storm will come from smaller-scale features in the upper level pattern, and the structure and strength of these features is not well-predicted by the models at these kind of lead times (Monday is still 5 days away!). So as we get closer, the true strength of this storm will come into a little better focus.

To illustrate what I mean, here is a time-height cross section from the GFS model. Ignore a lot of the numbers and variables on there, and focus on the periods of green. These have varied quite a bit in the model runs, basically making the difference between a 1 foot storm and a 3 foot storm for Alta.

 

But I know everyone is looking for some numbers! So with the caveat that these numbers may change a bit as we get closer to the event, here’s my forecast. Drum roll…..I like a general 1-3 FEET for most of the Wasatch where you fine people plan to ski (8,000 feet and above). That said, I would not be surprised if the high elevations sites in the Cottonwoods exceeded these numbers.

Stay tuned for Jeff’s forecast tomorrow, as he’ll have some more certainty on the numbers. Jeff has also been realllly excited about the potential for a big dump from this storm for the past few days, so he is positively giddy to share his snowfall forecast.

 

Long Range

There is still a ton of spread amongst the models and ensembles on the mid-late next week period, so the forecast confidence is fairly low, but it looks like we’ll remain in an active pattern after this storm. Keep those skis tuned!