Wow!

Well, the totals so far include 20 inches of 4% blower at Alta, with 8 inches of that falling overnight.  Conditions yesterday were awesome, and figure to be all time today if you can get to places that didn’t get skied yesterday.  The Upper Cottonwoods, not surprisingly, did the best, and have exceeded our foreast totals.  Other areas got around 6″. The trough producing this precipitation will continue to elongate in an east-west orientation.  This elongation will keep weak synoptic lift going over Utah and as a result snow showers should continue through Tueday afternoon, favoring the southern half of the Wasatch.  Air temperatures look to remain bitter cold during that time as well.

I expect that areas north of I-80 will only get 1-4 more inches from these remaining showers through Tuesday, while areas south will see more like 2-5.  And of course 3-7 inches for the Cottonwoods.

From Wedenesday forward the trough elongates enough to cut off, leaving a weak low pressure system spinning over Southern Utah.  This system may produce some snow over the Arizona border.  Otherwise, things actually look fairly dry over Utah over the next week with ridging over us.

Storm Update

UPDATE @11:30am 12/26: Looks like we have now solidly nailed the forecast for all of the areas.

With Deer Valley at 9″ storm total and Canyons at 12″, the Park City resorts are within our 6-12″ range. We went for 12-24″ for the Cottonwoods resorts, and Snowbird and Alta-Collins sit at 18″ and 19″, respectively. Powder Mountain and Tony Grove Lake picked up 13″ and 9″ respectively, with our forecast of 8-16″ for the northern Wasatch.

Big kudos to Matt Jeglum for nailing this storm from 3 days out with his Deceber 22nd forecast!

 

Snowy Gifts

The much-anticipated Christmas storm blew into Utah in the wee hours of Christmas morning and delivered a nice little blanket of low-density powder to both the valleys and the mountains. I heard the skiing in the Cottonwoods was great today. Although the upper-level trough continues to spin over us, snowfall has tapered to flurries for the time being, so let’s take a look at snowfall totals so far:

Snowbird: 14″

Alta: 12″

Tony Grove Lake (Northern Wasatch): 8″

Ben Lomond (Ogden area mountains): 7″

Canyons: ~8″

If you looked at our forecastsfor this event, you’ll notice that our prediction of 12-24 for the Upper Cottonwoods has verified, albeit just barely! It appears we are good for the Northern Wasatch and PC side too. The northerly flow present during much of this event after the cold front passed was really not ideal for orographic snowfall enhancement in the Wasatch…this cut the totals down. So the question then becomes: can we squeze out a few more inches before the upper-level trough leaves us late tomorrow???

Well the computer models this evening are already wrong right out of the gate…according to them the snow should still be falling at moderate intensity. And as I said earlier, there’s not much more than flurries falling right now. So, I’m gonna have to do some old school forecasting tonight…this northerly flow direcation has been relatively unproductive this evening, but I wouldn’t be surprised if another small scale feature in the trough provides enough lift to drop a few more inches. So I’m gonna go 2-5″ more for the upper Cottonwoods and 1-4″ more elsewhere.

The next storm comes our way early Sunday as another cold trough drops out of the Pac NW. The good news is that it should bring more of the light, fluffy powder we saw today, but the bad news is that I don’t forsee this being a very big storm. We’ll give you some snowfall numbers tomorrow.

The long range after this does not look overly promising, although I think the model solutions may flip for this time period, so don’t write it off completely.

 

I’m Dreaming of a White, Blower Pow 5% Density Christmas

The 7 day period stretching from last Friday to this Friday may go down as one of the best for the Cottonwoods in quite some time (at least since last season…). We’ve already gotten the “dirty” work out of the way with this past storm putting down extraordinarily high amounts of snow water or SWE (> 5 inches in the Upper Cottonwoods) cutting what was a 40% deficit into a surplus!!! The news gets better, though, and for Christmas day things are looking downright scrumptious.

A MUCH COLDER trough (than the previous system) will bring a strong cold front in from the NW with most of the precipitation falling during and after the frontal passage. Winter will finally truly arrive for all of Nrn Utah early on Christmas morning with snow levels crashing down to valley floors, which has prompted the issuance of Winter Storm Watches. The Cottonwoods will likely fair the best once again since at least a portion of the post-frontal period will see NW flow. Here are some of the model snow water or QPF totals: GFS = .6″ NAM = .8″ ECMWF = .8″ 4km NAM = > 1.15″

Like I already mentioned this storm will be COLD with densities around 5%, our first true blower powder of the season. Snow will intially be higher density but the switch will be very quick as the trough ushers in much colder air aloft. Thus .6″ of QPF would yield appx. 12 inches of snow. With all of this said I’ll stick with Matt’s numbers from yesterday:

12 – 24 inches in the Upper Cottonwoods 

8 – 16 inches in the Northern Wasatch

6 – 12 inches in Park City

Small caveat: As is often the case with COLD NW flow storms, there will be the potential for a lake effect band to form. Uncertainties in the flow direction precludes a more confident forecast, so I’m sticking with the same #s for the Cottonwoods. Just keep in mind that totals there could easily end up in the upper range or even higher if a lake band forms and parks itself over the Cottonwoods. Hopefully we’ll have some better ideas on this potential tomorrow.

Stormy Christmas

A local Volkswagen dealership had a deal where they would make your car payments for a year if it snowed on Christmas this year.  Thankfully for those of us who ski, it looks like the dealership will be out of luck this year.  The outlook for this next week is a good one if you are a skier.

First things first, we are soon coming to the tail end of a very nice storm for all of Central and Northern Utah.  Water managers and local skiers love storms like this.  They might not provide blower pow, but man do these storms cover up the rocks quickly.  With temperatures dropping steadily since last night, snow densities and snow levels are dropping, improving the skiing.  The Wasatch will see between 0-3 inches of snow between now (3:30 pm) and when the precipitation ends this evening.  The Bear Rivers near Logan look to get 2-4 more up high.  While the snow totals for this storm have been impressive, it is really the water totals that make it an exceptional event:

Tony Grove Lake (near Logan): 5″ water, 24″+ snow

Beaver Mtn Ski Area: 12″ snow

Ben Lomond Peak (near Ogden): 4.6″ water, 18″+snow

Snowbasin: 2.7″ water, 17″ snow

PowMow: 2.4″ water, 14″ snow

Alta/Snowbird: 4″ water, 27″ snow

Brighton: 2.4″ water, 17″ snow

Park City: 1.7″ water, 12″ snow

Not only did Alta get a lot of snow, but no rain either.  Once again Little Cottonwood delivers.  Looking back at the pre-storm forecast, things panned out pretty well for both water amounts and snow amounts. Snowbasin and PowMow undershot their forecasts, and the error was primarily in the snow density forecast as opposed the the forecast water amount. 

This storm was a good example of how snow amount forecasting can be very hard relative to simply forecasting rain.  Most forecasters take from the model just a water amount, and then apply a snow ratio to that water amount for each phase of the storm to get actual snow amounts (the models aren’t good at converting water to snow themselves).  In situations where at some point in the storm you might get anything from rain to 6% powder, you have 2 big sources of error: the amount of water that will fall and how much snow each unit of that water will turn into.  In this last storm the water forecasts were quite good, so much of the difficulty was in forecasting the rain/snow line and snow densities.

Speaking of snow density, our next storm will arrive on Christmas morning.  Unlike the last system, temperatures will be cold and blower powder is a distinct possibility.  The models have been a little squirrely on this one, but things look promising for what I call a “checkmark storm.”  These storms often bring awesome pow riding as the storm comes in warm and goes out cold, often with a good fetch of NW winds that keep things piling up in the Cottonwoods in either lake-effect or post-cold frontal showers.  Even though both the GFS and ECMWF are liking this solution, the snow ranges will be big due to the potential for prolonged moist NW flow.  Like I said 2 weeks ago, never turn your back on moist NW flow if you are forecasting for the Cottonwoods!  Here are some amounts for Thursday morning through Friday afternoon:

Upper Cottonwoods: 12-24″

Northern Wasatch: 8-16″

Park City: 6-12″

If you are planning when to ski, Thursday (Christmas) looks like the main storm day, but Friday looks even better with more and fluffier snow from Thursday night.

After that there might be another trough Sunday, but its all over the place.

Nature’s Firehose

Before I get to the upcoming Atmospheric River set to blast the Wasatch starting later this weekend, I’ll hit the short term real quick.

With cold temps and a quick-hitting shortwave scooting through Utah this (Friday) evening, I’m expecting a burst of nice low-density snow in the mountains. I’ll go 3-6″ for the upper Cottonwoods, 2-4″ for the PC resorts, and 3-5″ elsewhere.

Now for the good stuff! Nature’s firehose will be cranking up beginning late Saturday night, with precip rates and wind speeds increasing into Sunday morning, and the storm ending late Monday night. There will not be a ton of large-scale lift provided by the atmosphere but the sheer amount of water being transported in the nuking upper level winds, and then being forced to rise over the Wasatch, will provide all the ingredients to drop some serious precipitation. This is an Atmospheric River. So what will the conditions be like on the ground?

-Snow levels will be high: getting as high as 8,000ft on Sunday. The bases of many resorts will get rain.

-Winds will be howling Sunday morning through Monday morning

-Snow will be of the Sierra Cement variety. I wouldn’t be surprised to see periods of 5:1 snow-water ratios

-Avalanche conditions will be quite dangerous in the backcountry

As for snowfall totals, I’m going to stick with exactly what Trey went for yesterday. Near the snow line, these totals won’t be valid of course, but I anticipate these amounts at mid-mountain and above. Trey went for 18-36″ in the upper Cottonwoods and northern Wasatch, with 10-20″ on the PC side (above the snow line). Most important in these kinds of storms though is the amount of liquid equivalent in the snow that will fall…important for covering up rocks for skiers, and for storing water in our snowpack for lakes and rivers. I’m anticipating 3-5″ of liquid in the upper Cottonwoods and Logan area mountains…that’s a lot of water from one storm. 

So it’s gonna be a wet, warm, and windy storm…and one we definitely need. As Trey said, get out there and surf that beautiful new snow!

 

Long Term also still looks good for a nice cold storm Christmas Day by the way. Santa put Utah on the nice list!!!

Going BIG!!!

Looks like we were able to squeeze a couple inches out of some snow showers this morning. Forecaster Peter Veals was reporting 1-2″ on the ground in Upper Little Cottonwood, which helped freshen things up a little. Looking ahead we have a very exciting forecast.

A strong upper level jet max will slam into the Pacific Northwest this weekend bringing with it a very moist/unstable airmass. This will help place Nrn Utah in a favorable region for prolonged, strong northwesterly flow. Several favorable ingredients will likely come together to provide an extended period of snow at higher elevations:

1. Strong jet max penetrating the inner-mountain west – 160 knot jet max

2. Moist northwesterly flow in the mid-upper levels – favorable for additional orographic enhancement particularly in the Cottonwoods and westerly/northerly facing aspects. 

3. Long duration – 48 hours

 

A few concerns also exist, though:

1. Warm airmass – Snow levels will be 7500-8500 feet. Cooling effects during heavier precipitation will be able to overcome this at times, though.

2. Jet location – Nrn Utah will be more on the Anti-cyclonic side of the jet. Preferred location is directly underneath and just north of the jet max.

 

With all this said through Tuesday I’m conservatively expecting 1.5 – 3 FEET in the Upper Cottonwoods and resorts in the far North like Beaver Mntn (particularly above mid-mountain where snow ratios will be slightly better). 10 – 20 inches should fall in the Park City area at mid-mountain and above. Base locations may see periods of rain and snow due to the warm airmass. Unfortunately areas farther south will be the big losers for this storm cycle. Totals will be marginal at best with < 6 inches at resorts such as Sundance, even at the highest elevations. 

How will it ski? Due to the warm air mass snow densities will be quite high (probably average 7:1 – 10:1 above 9000 feet). So while we aren’t talking blower pow, you should still be able to surf the higher density snow with your fatties. MOST importantly, this is adding much needed water to the overall snowpack and coverage should drastically improve.

An Oasis or a Mirage?

The Cottonwood resorts were able to squeeze all of 1 inch out of the very weak disturbance last night and cloudy skies have been the rule today.  Matt L was thinking that there might have been more, but alas, it was only enough to produce some wisps as you cruised down the groomers.  A shearing, negatively tilted trough will come onshore in California tonight, adding more to their much-needed totals. 

The trough really falls apart tomorrow though, and the moisture and lift just aren’t going to come together for Northern Utah.  I think an inch or less is a good bet Wednesday.  Like Matt L mentioned, Brian Head might be able to get to 6 inches or so as they will have more moisture to play with.  The shreds of the trough will hang around Thursday, bringing grey skies and maybe another inch to the Wasatch.  Beaver Mountain and the Logan-area mountain will do better Thursday, with 1-4 possible by Friday morning.  

Looking forward from Friday, the large scale pattern will begin to shift from what we have seen this week.  According to the current GFS, the polar jet over the eastern Pacific will become fairly static as a deep long-wave trough sets up over the Central Pacific.  Such a pattern will keep the proverbial firehose pointed right at Oregon and Washington.  Enough of this moisture will make it inland that Northern Utah could do pretty well in the moist WNW flow from Sunday to next Tuesday, albeit with high freezing levels. The ECMWF ensemble likes it too, with virtually all the ensemble members on board with the idea of a strong, wet westerly jet hitting the northwest US. 

The only question is whether we will end up too far south to get it!  This setup lookssimilar to the one that really gave our season a kick in the pants last February, where the Cottonwoods did well, low elevations got rain, and areas from Logan, UT to the Tetons just got hammered. 

In short, don’t bank on it yet, but the 5-7 day outlook is hopeful.

Dense powder is still powder

As anticipated, the first part of this storm came in like concrete; shallow clouds and warm temps are a recipe for dense snow. We are now entering into the cold phase of this storm, so the snow that falls tonight and tomorrow should finish us off with a nice right-side-up snowfall.

 

Before I get into the forecast though, here’s a look at how snowfall totals are coming along throughout the Wasatch for this storm:

Alta Collins and Top Cecret: 4″

Snowbird: 5″

Thaynes Canyon Snotel (PC resort): 2″

Snowbasin: 7″

Ben Lomond Peak Snotel: over 10″

Tony Grove Lake Snotel: 3″

 

All of these locations came in at over 10% water content, so like I said, quite dense, but the skiing on the 5″ at Snowbird today was surprisingly good! Creamy powder is still powder, and it is also very good at covering up rocks and building a base. On a final note, you can’t ignore that huge number on Ben Lomond! It appears that during the pre-frontal W/SW flow, orographic precip generation went big up there. I say over 10″ only because there is no board to sweep at snotel sites, and settlement of the snow makes it impossible to say just how much fell. Needless to say though, they’ll likely be the winners for this storm.

 

Now for the forecast, I’m gonna stick with the storm total numbers that others before me have put up. We’re just shy of verifying within our ranges, so the additional snow that it appears will fall should push us into those ranges. Periods of snow will continue through tomorrow (Sunday), with things winding down in the afternoon/evening. One wild card with the cold upper-level temperatures though, is lake-effect, and there is a chance we could see a band Sunday. This would give us a few more inches in the Cottonwoods than forecast if were to happen.

 

Long range still looks similar to what Trey described, with a shot at a fairly weak storm in the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe. In the mean time, get out and enjoy the snow!

Snow. Finally!

As I write this early Friday evening, precipitation can be seen moving into radar range..when was the last time we could say that?! As I’m sure many of you have noticed, it’s been unseasonably warm. Today we broke another record high at Salt Lake Int’l Airport. Why’s this important? It means any pre-frontal precipitation will fall as snow only at very high elevations. The bulk of precipitation is expected to be associated with the frontal passage, however, so snow levels will lower during the heaviest precipitation. A few quick model numbers for the Nrn Wasatch: GFS = .2″ qpf, ECMWF = .5″ qpf, NAM = .4″ qpf, GFS (4 km) = .6″ qpf,  NAM (4km) = .8″ qpf. If we grossly used a 10:1 snow ratio that would yield about 2-10 inches for the model solutions. So what are we calling for?

 

Like Ian said in his forecast below, we’ll likely see modest accumulations with the front overnight tonight followed by additional accumulations Saturday PM. Overall, I’m sticking with the 6-12 inches for the Upper Cottonwoods as we’ve called for the last several days. Lower totals in lower elevation areas like PC: 3-7 inches (higher amnts possible above mid-mountain). This storm will be “right side up” so it at least has that going for us. Groomers will probably be great, but off trail you’ll risk hitting crust or hidden rocks. 

 

Long range

Another storm is on tap for mid-week! Unfortunately, it looks like the bulk will miss us once again, but any snow is welcomed. And it could still be decent: ECMWF gives us solid accumulations, GFS and ensembles not so much. We’ll hopefully have a better idea once we get this storm out of the picture.