As I write this early Friday evening, precipitation can be seen moving into radar range..when was the last time we could say that?! As I’m sure many of you have noticed, it’s been unseasonably warm. Today we broke another record high at Salt Lake Int’l Airport. Why’s this important? It means any pre-frontal precipitation will fall as snow only at very high elevations. The bulk of precipitation is expected to be associated with the frontal passage, however, so snow levels will lower during the heaviest precipitation. A few quick model numbers for the Nrn Wasatch: GFS = .2″ qpf, ECMWF = .5″ qpf, NAM = .4″ qpf, GFS (4 km) = .6″ qpf, NAM (4km) = .8″ qpf. If we grossly used a 10:1 snow ratio that would yield about 2-10 inches for the model solutions. So what are we calling for?
Like Ian said in his forecast below, we’ll likely see modest accumulations with the front overnight tonight followed by additional accumulations Saturday PM. Overall, I’m sticking with the 6-12 inches for the Upper Cottonwoods as we’ve called for the last several days. Lower totals in lower elevation areas like PC: 3-7 inches (higher amnts possible above mid-mountain). This storm will be “right side up” so it at least has that going for us. Groomers will probably be great, but off trail you’ll risk hitting crust or hidden rocks.
Another storm is on tap for mid-week! Unfortunately, it looks like the bulk will miss us once again, but any snow is welcomed. And it could still be decent: ECMWF gives us solid accumulations, GFS and ensembles not so much. We’ll hopefully have a better idea once we get this storm out of the picture.