By Tomorrow Morning:
Snowfall rates are beginning to increase as positive vorticity advection and associated 700 mb convergence increases across Central Utah. GOOD NEWS! This axis has continued to shift north over the last several hours with the heaviest precipitation now reaching as far north as the Cottonwoods. A quick look at the Snowbird cam reveals rates up to 1″ / hour right now and with 15:1 ratios this appears very reasonable. I’m expecting these precipitation rates to continue through late evening so let’s say 6 hours+ of this. I’m going a little bit out on a limb here with my nowcasting, but given these trends early this afternoon I’m going higher than everyone else and forecasting 4-8 inches by tomorrow morning. Everyone from the Cottonwoods and points south should do fairly well. Northern resorts likely won’t get as much with a fairly sharp cutoff in precipitation…I’m not expecting much more northward advancement but if it did occur Snowbasin and Pow Mountain would get in on more action.
Tommorow through Monday afternoon:
Precipitation will become more showery in nature without a strong forcing mechanism like we have this evening. Maybe a couple inches especially in areas that get lucky with a few of these showers but not expecting a lot. This would put us pretty close to Matt’s forecast of 6-12 for the weekend, though he picked the wrong best day ;).
Monday afternoon through Tuesday:
Another shortwave trough drops down from the NW into Northern Utah. All models are showing that while it won’t be an extremely long duration event, precipitation rates could be heavy at times. There’s still some uncertainty with the interaction between this shortwave and the longwave pattern entrenched in the Western U.S. but I’m confident enough to conservatively forecast 6 – 12 inches. Don’t be surprised if these numbers go up. I really like what I’m seeing with the European and we’ll be in favorable (for the Cottonwoods) NW Flow. In addition, there will be a brief period where we could see some lake enhancement. We’ll hopefully have a better idea about this tomorrow! In the meantime, enjoy the new snow!