Well, here’s the deal. We have a couple sad excuses for troughs moving through Utah between Sunday and Tuesday. The heat, sun and wind have taken their toll on the snow and conditions are about as bad as Utah gets this time of year. Whether you believe the GFS or Euro model depends on whether we will get an upgrade to mediocre conditions by Tuesday or we will simply stay at bad. But we can’t complain too much, we could live on the East Coast.
The GFS is currently really dry over the Wasatch, with only 2-4 inches forecast by Tuesday. If the juiciest band in the GFS shifts over the Wasatch, make that 3-6. Southern Utah will do better.
The EC ensemble is looking a little better with more like 3-6 possible by Tuesday, with the most optimistic members maybe getting to 10 inches. I know, its depressing. Overall the expectations are down a little from what Matt forecasted yesterday. The forcing for precipitation in these troughs will be more dynamic than orographic, so there may not be huge biases from one resort to another. Due to uncertainty with what will happen, I am not even going to bother with resort specific amounts except to say that whatever falls definitely won’t come before Sunday morning. Sunday could be a real bad day if clouds keep the sun at bay and all the ice just stays ice without much new snow falling. During the day Monday looks the most likely to see snow.
The long term still looks depressing with another big ridge next week.