We’ve got another storm coming in starting Wednesday morning! Woooo more snow! Now that I got that out of the way, I’ll add that it’s going to be (yet another) warm and weak storm. Oh well, I’ll take it. The steeps at Snowbird were still pretty rocky this weekend, so the dense snow that will fall should be pretty helpful. For those (like USW’s Matt Jeglum) who were lucky enough to be out touring in the backcountry, the coverage was adequate on the less-rocky terrain and the snow skied well, but avalanche conditions remain quite spooky. Be careful out there.
The storm coming our way is a closed off low-pressure system that has been spinning off the coast of California for the past few days. The low is finally getting picked back up into the storm track, but unfortunately it will be filling (weakening) hastily. This means that although we have a decent amount of moisture that has been pumped into the interior West, the amount of rising motion in the atmosphere to generate precipitation will be fairly limited. The window of time we have to generate snow over the mountains varies between the GFS and ECMWF models, but I’m thinking Wednesday morning through Thursday morning is reasonable, although snowfall rates will likely be pretty low and the rain-snow line will be fairly high due to warm temperatures. With that in mind I’m gonna go 4-8″ storm total for the high elevations of the Cottonwoods, Timpanogos area, and the northern Wasatch, with 2-4″ in the Park City area. The rain-snow line may be near the base of Snowbird and Solitude at times, and unfortunately the PC resort bases will likely see some rain.
UPDATE @ 10am Tuesday: I just don’t like our chances for 8″ of snow anywhere in the Wasatch, so I’d count more on 3-6″…this storm has continued to undwerwhelm me in the models
Long Range:The long range is all over the place. This afternoon’s run of the GFS model just magically created a storm this Saturday over Utah. The ensemble members say it should be a weak storm at best. I’m not gonna bite yet, so I’ll say we have a shot at a weak storm this weekend. That’s it…hopefully Jeff will have more for you tomorrow.