So you’re saying there is a chance…

Posted Saturday, December 21st, 2019 by Andy Park

TL;DR
In brief, the next few days will be windy with some clouds, and no snow. Starting Monday night/Tuesday morning a small window will open to bring in some snow with some model members indicating the white stuff… still too far away to throw numbers out.

Today through Monday:
The only exciting thing happening is the hang gliders at the Point of the Mountain are out getting some (image courtesy of Utah Hangliding and Paragliding Association South camera).

The winds across the state will increase over the next 24 hours as a deep upper level trough moves east across the Pacific. This system will drive the strong southerly flow with winds at Atla-Mt. Baldy getting up to 30/40 knots.

Monday night through end of the week:
The GEFS members are showing strong agreement on the location of the upper level trough on Monday off the coast of Cali brah.

This system will steer moisture into the area sometime on Monday with current guidance indicating the stronger signal for midnight on Monday/ Tuesday. There is some disagreement between ensemble and deterministic but both show some Integrated Vapor Transport (which correlates to precipitation/snow) for this time frame.

The strongest dynamics will be over Arizona and Southern Utah but interaction of the upper flow with terrain might help to drive greater snowfall in the higher terrain in the Wasatch. As this system ejects eastward cold air will move into the Great Basin and a ridge will set up increasing the likelihood of a nice deep inversion with stable conditions for the start of the New Year. I will end this forecast with a glance at the plumes from the University of Utah.



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