Start getting excited

Posted Wednesday, April 5th, 2017 by Peter Veals

Alex cautioned us on Monday not to get too hyped up just yet for this weekend’s storm. I’m not quite on the hype train like famously loud and excited storm chaser Reed Timmer, BUT I am start to get excited.

Hype train featuring Reed Timmer and infamous OK Met Mike Morgan. No idea who to credit with this masterpiece.
Hype train featuring Reed Timmer and infamous OK Met Mike Morgan.
No idea who to credit with this masterpiece.

Why am I getting excited? For many days now, multiple weather models and their ensemble systems have been depicting a strong storm with heavy precipitation over Utah for the Saturday-Sunday period. The fact that there has been a long period of similar model solutions for the weekend, with different weather models arriving at this same solution, and their ensemble systems supporting this as a likely outcome…that gives me a good amount of confidence that we can expect a big storm this weekend.

precip
Sat-Sun precipition from the GFS (left) and the ECMWF model (right). Both depict a big event. models.weatherbell.com
Screen Shot 2017-04-05 at 12.53.12 PM
Precipitation output from the ECMWF ensemble members at SLC. Almost all of them are on board with a big event.

The question, however then becomes “what will the snow levels be?” The answer is looking like “all of the above.” They look to start very high on Friday night, lowering through the day Saturday, and then reaching the valley floor by Sunday morning. These types of details will evolve somewhat as the event gets closer, but I think this evolution looks pretty likely.

In the meantime, Thursday looks like a really nice day to be outside, with sunny skies and warm temps. Friday also be warm, but the winds will pick up and light precip will begin to move in, especially later in the day.

 

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