Sunny Days in Store

Posted Friday, December 14th, 2018 by Lucas Bohne

Happy Friday! We experienced calm and mainly clear conditions today despite some high clouds filtering into the area this afternoon. A very quick blast of snow that was forecast in model runs several days ago for tomorrow morning has  generally gone by the wayside, but we will still see some cooler air filter in on Saturday. However, sunny and mild weather is expected through the weekend.

Weekend Forecast 

As mentioned above, our chances for snow in the next few days are looking slim to none. A quick moving trough that is currently extended from Northern California into southwest British Columbia is producing rain and snow, but most of the moisture associated with it is looking to remain to our north as it moves rapidly inland overnight.  Some snow showers are possible tonight, but don’t expect more than a dusting. Behind this trough, high pressure will build back in for the weekend. Temperatures on Saturday will be slightly more chilly than today, but warmer air will move in to make Sunday sunny and warm.

GFS time-height section from today's 12Z (5 AM local time) model run. Limited moisture expected over the weekend for northern Utah. (weather.utah.edu)
GFS time-height section from today’s 12Z (5 AM local time) model run. Limited moisture expected over the weekend for northern Utah, except for some possible snow showers tonight. Quick return to clearer conditions for Saturday and a warm and sunny day in store for Sunday (weather.utah.edu)

Looking Ahead

In yesterday’s post Marcel mentioned the lack of any significant snowfall in the next week or so. High pressure, sunny skies, and warmer temperatures will persist through Monday as you can see in the figure above. Models have not seemed to agree on what to expect Monday night into Tuesday, so the chance for some light snow still remains for midweek, but forecasts will become more refined as we move through the weekend.  Then, heading into next weekend (22nd-23rd) and beyond, uncertainty is high as to what we can expect. GEFS Ensembles from the 18Z (11am) run show that it’s really up in the air for what to expect heading toward Christmas.

850 mb temperature (top lines) and precipitation (botton lines, near x-axis) for GFS ensemble members over the next two weeks. (wetterzentrale.de.)
850 mb temperature (top lines) and precipitation (bottom lines, near x-axis) for GFS ensemble members over the next two weeks. Potential for a shot of cooler air and some moisture exists around Tuesday-Wednesday (18 – 19 DEC). Beyond next week, who knows what to expect! (wetterzentrale.de.)

Have a great weekend and enjoy the warm and sunny conditions. Monitor our posts for updates about Tuesday’s potential for some light snow. Don’t forget to check avalanche conditions at the Utah Avalanche Center and also get more detailed point forecasts from the National Weather Service for ski areas by clicking on Resort Forecasts at the top of the page.

-Lucas

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