Yesterday’s cold front passage brought ample snowfall from the North-Central Wasatch all the way down to Southern Utah. Most resorts south of Ogden (sorry PowMow and Snowbasin) got 10+ inches of the good stuff, refreshing our ever-deepening base depths. Here are some 24- and 72-hour storm totals courtesy of OnTheSnow
The recent snowfall has put our snow water equivalent values well above normal for this time of year.. A welcome change from the past few seasons, especially last year which was abysmal to say the least.
Short-Term Forecast (Monday – Thursday):
The next few days look relatively calm over the state of Utah as a ridge builds in. We should be experiencing relatively quiescent weather through Wednesday evening, which is when our next system will be moving into the area. The plot below shows the 500 mb heights and vorticity valid Thursday (Valentine’s Day!) at noon. Note the area of red and yellow vorticity shading over Utah, indicating a strong system.
This cold system should contain ample moisture and will result in frozen precipitation at all elevations. Timing of the frontal passage currently looks poised to move through Northern Utah around 5 pm on Wednesday evening (shown as Thursday 00 UTC on plot below). The trough is forecasted pass to our south, which will bring strong southerly winds to the area.
NAM 12 km time-height cross section via weather.utah.edu
According to the most recent model guidance, precipitation should continue in the mountains with intermittent showers into the weekend. While we are getting out of our range of confident forecasting, it looks good for another fantastic holiday weekend.. Here are some too-early snow and liquid precipitation forecasts from the NAEFS ensemble
More details tomorrow!