Wonderful Powder Day, Mid Month Pattern Is Looking Really, Really Good!

Posted Thursday, January 2nd, 2020 by Luke Stone

TL;DR: Snowbird was ridiculous today, mostly boring for the next week or so, and then mid month it could seriously go off!

Wow. What a sick day at Snowbird. Northwest flow kicked in and dropped 7″ of 4% density snow on top of the 4 inches of dense snow that fell right after the lifts closed, resulting in a bottomless day with a storm total of 19″ Combine that with minimal crowds and it was one of the better days we’ve had in a while. First tram to reg., first tracks down Great Scott, first into one of the Baldy chutes, and 3 untracked runs in Mineral, including first into Chamonix Bowl. Whew, white room all day. The rest of LCC did well with this storm too, with 16″ at Alta, 15″ at Brighton and 9″ at Solitude.

Short Term: Things will quiet down in Utah tomorrow and for the next several days, as a ridge sets in, ugh.

(Image courtesy of Weatherbell)

The yellows and oranges indicate above normal upper level pressures, which equates to ridging and warm (relatively) and dry weather for us. That should last for a few days, before we get brushed by a trough moving through the Northwest. You can see Utah on the southern edge of the trough moving through.

(Image courtesy of Weatherbell)

The NAEFS plumes support this trough bring some moisture to Utah, with a light/moderate snowfall around the 6th.

Early guess is around 3-6″ for the Cottonwoods, less for Park City. Maybe a little more in far Northern Utah. After this seemingly boring wave moves through, we’ll likely see a few more days under the ridge, as seen below.

(Image courtesy of Weatherbell)

This won’t last long though, as the first of two significant upper level troughs moves into the west. Check out the upper level height anomalies for the beginning of the second week of the month:

(Images courtesy of Weatherbell)

As this trough moves across the West, it will have the potential to bring significant snow to Utah. But this is just the appetizer, as right on the heels of this initial trough is another, potentially deeper, stronger, one. Look at how the GFS and Euro models have the entree setting up for mid month:

(Images courtesy of Weatherbell)

You can see both the Euro and GFS have a strong, deep, trough over the Western US. However, the exact location of this beast is still in question, as the GFS has it further West, and this can significantly affect who gets destroyed with snow. This is the type of upper level pattern that makes me drool. There will be significantly colder than normal air, and lots of moisture. I’m really excited for what’s to come mid month.

That’s all for tonight.

Thanks for reading.

Luke

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